Interview
with Israeli security analyst about Syrian events, his country getting
surprised, and about no involvement of Israel in current Libya.
Tommy,
how has the security situation of Israel changed after political changes in
Egypt?
Prior to the
changes in Egypt, and particularly in the past few years, Egypt and Israel
formed a close discreet strategic relationship which was based on a similar
reading and understanding of the respective national interests in the region.
It is apparent that the new government in Egypt is assuming a different course
in its regional engagements which effectively means that Israel has lost a
major regional ally even if the peace treaty will not be annulled.
Has
Israel been prepared for such scenario?
No one was
prepared, Israel included.
Does the government of Israel make any
significant changes in its security policies?
One can only
assume that Israel is following events in the region and will have to adapt its
security policy.
What
is the Israel’s perception of NATO forces applying no-fly zone over Libya?
Israel has no
position on the matter.
Does it mean that Israel does not care
about what is happening in Libya? What was the relation of Israel towards
Gaddafi?
Israel viewed Gaddafi as a dangerous and
erratic leader, but his impact on Israel's security was limited after nuclear
disarmament. I don't know what you mean about "care", but Israel
deliberately chose not to be involved in the conflict in Libya and for valid
reasons.
What
kind of threat posses rages in Syria towards Israel?
The ongoing political turmoil adds to the strategic
uncertainty. The events of May 15, in which the Syrian regime – colluding with
Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Hammas in Gaza – allowed and facilitated mass
demonstrations of Palestinians residing in Syria along the Golan Height border
including the crossing of the border, is an indication that one of the tools
the Syrian regime might use to deflect attention is to provocate Israel.
There
are some rumors that Israel would like to join the EU in the future. Could you
comment on that?
I don’t see that
happening. Israel aspires for closer relations with the EU and NATO, but
membership in both institutions is not in the cards and is highly unlikely.
Does Israel have any other real ally
except of USA?
No.
What
is the Israel’s foreign policy towards its neighbours? Could you do a short recap focusing on
security matters?
I see
the big players in the Middle East forming a new column. As Gulf
countries like Saudi Arabia embrace Morocco and Jordan with an expanded GCC, it
signals an alliance of interests – Sunni monarchies protecting each other,
forming the beachhead against Iran, and subtly or publicly, countering the same
threats that Israel would like to see put down. It has some hope and
some promise. While Gulf countries are unlikely to publicly countenance a
relationship, I see Jordan and Morocco’s diplomatic ties with Israel means
there is a bridge to that bloc.
Now the whole game changes if the
Israel-Palestinian impasse breaks, for good. This week’s kickoff of a new U.S.
activism, even with President Obama’s thorny mention of 1967 borders, could lead to a
seismic positive change. There may not be much optimism or warmth on either
side, no handshake on a White House lawn. But with Palestinians looking to declare statehood, Hamas
without a stable patron in Syria, and Israel working out how to respond, all
sides may end up being spooked into submission.
Enough
movement on the Israel-Palestine track could sap the strength of regional
radicals – chiefly Iran – and boost the moderate alliance. But for that to
happen Israel will have to manage change domestically, making what Prime
Minister Netanyahu called an “indefensible” map of Israel into one that’s
politically palatable.
As for managing
what comes next of the Arab Spring regime change, there’s the worry neighboring
Syria. The potential crack or fall of the Assad regime is both a moment of
opportunity and ill-defined danger.
Thank
you for your time.
Jakub
Janda
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Tommy Steiner
is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at the Interdisciplinary
Center, Herzliya (Izrael). He is also former Director of the Atlantic Forum of
Israel. he heads research programs that
focus on Israeli foreign policy and the European Union’s and NATO’s relations
with Israel and the Middle East.
